The Effect of Communication and Credibility on Fiscal Disagreement: Empirical Evidence from Colombia
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Fecha
2022
Autores
Anzoátegui Zapata, Juan Camilo
Galvis Ciro, Juan Camilo
Ramos Barroso, Cristina Isabel
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Springer International Publishing
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ABSTRACT: The aim of this paper is to research the effects of the central bank’s communication on the forecast of the monetary policy interest rate. To do this, we analyze the case of the Colombian economy for the period 2014-2020. The methodology used consists of evaluating the information provided in the minutes, the volume of news and the central bank’s publications and evaluating their effects on the disagreements in the expectations of the financial market. Through econometric regressions and using the GMM method and the impulse-response VAR methodology, it is found that policy decisions made by consensus, as well as clarity in the drafting of minutes, reduce uncertainty among agents.
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Galvis-Ciro, J. C., Anzoátegui-Zapata, J. C., & Ramos-Barroso, C. I. (2022). The effect of communication and credibility on fiscal disagreement: Empirical evidence from Colombia. Journal of Business Cycle Research, 18(3), 215-238.